Bird Flu-Worst-Case Scenario

There has been a lot of buzz about bird flu or theFinancial markets hit by panic selling, gold prices
avian influenza and how it could become a globalsoar
pandemic. What would a pandemic really mean?Run on banks as investors convert to cash
The federal government just launched a 7 billionHospitals see surge in flu patients overwhelming
dollar program to help the prevention and outstaff and supplies, only those most likely to live
break of a bird flu pandemic. There have onlygiven access to limited available ventilators
been 83 deaths from avian flu worldwide sinceHealthcare workers and first responders out sick
2003. Health experts have not yet seen evidenceor stay home to care for ill family members
of human to human transmission. So what does itPublic events are canceled and schools are closed
mean? And why is everyone so worried about aGovernment offices closed, non essential
pandemic?This new strain of flu virus would beservices shut down
more resistant than other normal flu strains and ifSocial services reduced or eliminated. Services still
it turns into a form that passes easily fromfunctioning are overwhelmed
person to person, we would have little immunityPublic transportation halted
to it. Millions could become ill and millions would die.Air traffic halted due to air traffic controllers,
Once it starts to spread it could move rapidlyairport staff and flight crews out sick
around the world infecting millions and affectingInterstate commerce greatly reduced with truck
the lives of everyone. The World Bank, which hasdrivers, warehouse and rail workers out sick
estimated that a bird flu pandemic lasting a yearFood deliveries, gas deliveries, other essential
could, cost the global economy up to $800 billion.supplies all reduced or eliminated
The economic toll on the world economy will beGrocery stores close due to shipments being
catastrophic. What is the worst-case scenario andeliminated
how might it develop?Here is how a bird fluFood distribution chain from farm to stores
pandemic might unfold:Outbreaks of avian flu inbreaks down
birds continue in several additional countriesTravel restricted, quarantines mandatory,
outside of Southeast Asia including Russia, Africaenforced by National Guard
and the Middle EastWidespread looting and riots over food shortages
Human cases of bird flu increaseand access to healthcare
Health experts confirm first human-to-humanLocal, State police and National Guard
transmissionsoverwhelmed
Flu screening is stepped up at airports around theSocial structure breaks down
world for passengers coming from infectedDomestic violence increases as people are forced
countriesto stay home
Health care workers show signs of increasedLoss of workers affects all businesses across
exposurethe economy, including finance, sanitation, utilities,
Air travel spreads virus to all corners of theinternet, distribution, energy, retail, tourism and
globe within 3 monthstravel
First confirmed human transmission cases appearUtility outages increase as coal shipments are
in Europe Russia, and the United Statesreduced and minimum required staffs at power
Outbreaks continue, becoming more widespreadplants and water plants are out sick
reaching epidemic statusFuneral homes are overwhelmed as bodies stack
Regional stockpiles of antivirals quickly dwindle,up
new high volume production and distribution is 62nd wave of pandemic bird flu hits
months offGlobal economy will take years to recover from
International flights are reduced or eliminated tocatastrophic losses and loss of trained employees
help contain spread of the fluwho diedDoes the above scare you? Think it
Billions are lost on international commerce,won't happen? Well this is the exact scenario your
affecting millions of jobs around the worldlocal, state and federal governments are training
US imports from Asian factories halted as Asianand planning for. How would you survive? It has
workers fall ill, US inventories dropalways been recommended to keep 3 days of
International trade devastatedsupplies on hand to survive a natural disaster. We
US economy feels effects of loss of productivityhave seen how the federal government handles
due to millions of workers out sicknatural disasters.